A few hours after US President Biden‘s statements that he “expects a Russian invasion of Ukraine” (which he subsequently partially retracted) and despite his “clouded” mind, these statements caused a stir and concern, not only in Ukraine, but also in Europe in general.

Because a Russian invasion of Ukraine means a conflagration within Europe and the first military conflict since World War II in the form of an armed conflict where one state invades another state.

But is it so?

Is there a possibility that Russia could invade Ukraine on the occasion of even a possible attempt by the Ukrainians to ethnically cleanse the Russian-speaking people in the self-proclaimed republics of Lugansk and Donetsk?

No chance and no possibility!

The only thing that could happen if the West pushed Kiev to invade these areas is that there would be a mission of support units for the separatists, just as it had done in 2014-2015, without signals and reconnaissance and exclusively for the defence of the Russian-speakers.

It has never been officially involved in Ukraine since the 2014 coup and has no intention of doing so now.

Nor was there any conflict in the case of the reconquest, initially and then union with the Russian body, of Crimea.

Bloodlessly, 92% of Russian-speaking people decided to join Russia later in the referendum.

Many Western media, with clearly directed articles, refer to the exercises that Russia is conducting near the border with Ukraine and Belarus and present them as “invasion rehearsals” but they are nothing more than exercises, a show of force, not invasion rehearsals.

They are “response exercises” to exercises and concentrations of NATO troops near or on the Russian border, but they are not offensive moves.

Russian forces were never deployed near the Ukrainian border in an offensive formation, nor were major air support forces or large helicopter units deployed, beyond what was needed for the needs of the exercises.

And where they were deployed when they finished the exercises the troops were moved back to their bases

Also, as reported by absolutely accurate information from the area of the Russian exercises

1. No large mobile hospital units were ever moved to the area of the exercises, a prerequisite in an imminent major offensive action.

2. Mobile blood banks were never transported, an equally necessary requirement in an imminent major military operation

Provision for the care of wounded is considered one of the most basic steps in war preparation and is even essential for the morale of the troops participating in a military operation.

In 2014 in Crimea, regardless of the bloodless recapture of the peninsula, mobile hospitals and blood banks were brought to the border and loaded onto An-124 aircraft when Russian special forces occupied the checkpoints and border crossings with Ukraine.

Of course, Russia is not going to be indifferent in case of a mass attack on the Russian speakers or even Russians (most of them have received Russian passports) in Donetsk and Lugansk.

In case the West convinces the Ukrainians that they are capable of attacking the breakaway regions, the “little green men” of 2014 will certainly take over, as mentioned above: unmarked Russian units to avoid any official Russian involvement.

But only for the defence of these areas.

The answer to the question “Why does Russia rule out invading Ukraine?” is much simpler than one might imagine.

Firstly, because Putin considers Ukraine to be. . . part of Russia and the Ukrainians “brothers“.

He has stated that a Russian action against Ukraine would be “civil war“.

“It is Russian blood, brother Slavic blood. How can we shed such blood?” he had first stated in 2014 and repeated it recently.

Second, because such a move would undermine Russian policy on gas and oil pipelines and, more generally, Russian hydrocarbon sales to Western Europe at a time when Moscow and Berlin are waiting for Nord Stream II to be activated.

By what logic (even Biden‘s “logic“) would someone “shoot his client“?

Practically all this rumour about the “Russian invasion of Ukraine” by the Western media (which receive information from the respective Western intelligence services) is about creating a negative climate for Russia with the operation of Nord Stream II at stake.